TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether a specific team will achieve a designated point differential advantage within the first half of an upcoming football game. Outcomes are determined solely by the scoring margin at halftime, ignoring any points scored after that point.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the LA Rams and PHI Eagles during the first half of their game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets 1-9 require the LA Rams to win by exceeding margins from 13.5 to 1.5 points, while markets 10-16 require the PHI Eagles to win by exceeding margins from 2.5 to 10.5 points. All secondary rules consistently stipulate that only points scored in the first half count toward resolution. No markets consider full-game results or second-half performance. The governing body's official scoring and game records determine outcomes, with Kalshi explicitly disclaiming any affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate forecasters of event outcomes than traditional odds, particularly as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds offer a readily available comparison point for understanding implied probabilities in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of the Rams covering the first half spread. The current price indicates what traders are collectively willing to pay or receive for a contract predicting a 'yes' or 'no' outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the first half spread for the LA Rams versus the Philadelphia Eagles game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official first half spread result as determined by sports data providers. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on the losing side will receive nothing. The final price on Kalshi will reflect the market's final assessment of the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Rams or the Eagles, particularly the quarterback or key offensive players, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any significant line movement in traditional sportsbooks or updated analysis from football experts could influence traders on Kalshi and affect the price of contracts in this market.