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$154.4b
24H VOL:
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the SEA Seahawks will win by more than 6.5 points against the LA Chargers in their upcoming Pro Football game. Currently, the probability of the SEA Seahawks winning by over 6.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the final point differential in the game, as determined by the official result of the LA Chargers vs SEA Seahawks Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market resolves to Yes if the SEA Seahawks win by more than 17.5 points, with final resolution expected around October 5, 2026.
The event consists of multiple sub-markets, each defined by a specific point differential threshold that the Seattle Seahawks or Los Angeles Chargers must exceed to resolve that particular market as 'Yes'. If the Seahawks win by more than the stated margin (ranging from 1.5 to 27.5 points), the corresponding 'Seahawks win by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes'. Conversely, if the Chargers win by more than the stated margin (ranging from 1.5 to 14.5 points), the corresponding 'Chargers win by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes'. If neither team meets the required margin in their respective markets, all markets resolve to 'No'. The outcomes are determined solely based on the final official score of the game as recorded by the governing league. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can often differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts in both venues. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and represent probabilities of future events, while sportsbook odds are often influenced by factors like public betting patterns.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Chargers-Seahawks game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the Chargers will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Chargers-Seahawks game, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts corresponding to the correct spread will settle at 100, while those representing incorrect spreads will settle at 0. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the actual game result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the game takes place. News regarding key player injuries for either the Chargers or Seahawks would likely cause substantial price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from informed traders, can also drive price fluctuations.