TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points are scored in the final quarter of a football game between two teams. Bettors can predict whether the combined scoring will exceed various thresholds, offering different levels of challenge and potential return.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams combined during the 4th quarter of the designated game, with overtime points explicitly excluded. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined 4th-quarter points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Thresholds range from 3.5 to 24.5 points, allowing participants to choose their risk level. The secondary rule consistently applies across all markets, ensuring only in-game 4th-quarter points are counted, maintaining uniformity in evaluation for all outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or breaking news. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines tend to converge, as both attempt to accurately predict the outcome of the game. Keep in mind that prediction markets allow you to trade positions, unlike fixed-odds sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price of that contract will rise. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final total points scored in the 4th quarter of the Chargers versus Seahawks game will determine the outcome. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider, will be used to verify the final score. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is verified, and payouts will be processed accordingly. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Chargers or Seahawks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also shift the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also play a role. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could impact trader sentiment and, consequently, the price on Kalshi. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market.