TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether a specific team will dominate the final quarter of an upcoming football game by a certain margin. It tests the ability to anticipate late-game momentum shifts and strategic plays that could determine the outcome of the match.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the 4th quarter of play (excluding overtime) in the LA Chargers vs SEA Seahawks Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if either team achieves a victory margin exceeding the specified point threshold for that market. Thresholds range from narrow margins (e.g., >1.5 points) to substantial leads (e.g., >10.5 points), allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance. No points from overtime or earlier quarters influence resolution. The markets cover both possible winners, with separate thresholds for each team’s potential lead size.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective insight of prediction market participants. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 4th quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price rises, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information emerges and opinions change.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Chargers-Seahawks game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the market will pay out to contract holders based on whether their predicted spread matches the actual result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand when and how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Chargers or Seahawks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. In-game events, such as early scoring drives or defensive stops, will also impact the market as traders react to the unfolding action and adjust their predictions accordingly. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also play a role.