TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between two teams during a specific quarter of a football game. It focuses solely on how much one team outscores the other in that quarter, without considering the final game result. Outcomes are determined by the point difference at the end of the specified quarter.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential between the LA Chargers and SEA Seahawks during the 3rd Quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Only points scored in that quarter count; the final game outcome or points from other quarters are irrelevant. Markets are structured as binary (Yes/No) propositions evaluating whether the winning team exceeds specific point-margin thresholds ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points. For Seattle to win by a required margin, their 3rd Quarter score must surpass the Chargers' by more than the stated threshold. Conversely, for Los Angeles to win by a required margin, their 3rd Quarter score must exceed Seattle's by more than the specified amount. If the actual margin exactly matches a threshold (e.g., a 7.5-point difference), the market resolves as No. All markets operate independently, meaning separate evaluations occur for each point-spread level listed.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging with—or even anticipating—sportsbook odds. However, there can be differences. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly set prices based on their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome or a temporary imbalance in trading activity. It's always useful to compare both to form a well-rounded assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. The market depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in various outcomes, offering insight into potential shifts in sentiment as the game approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sports data providers. Traders who correctly predicted the 3rd quarter spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress and any potential factors that could influence the final spread as the resolution date nears.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chargers or the Seahawks would likely cause movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. In-game performance during the first and second quarters will also be a major driver, as traders react to the unfolding events and adjust their expectations for the 3rd quarter spread. Unexpected strategic decisions by either coaching staff could also shift the market.