TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 5:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between the LA Chargers and SEA Seahawks in the first quarter of their upcoming game. It focuses solely on the scoring difference within the initial 15 minutes of play, offering various thresholds for victory margins.
The event resolves based on the point differential in the first quarter of the LA Chargers vs SEA Seahawks game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Ten separate markets cover varying point-spread thresholds, ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points for either team. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the designated margin. Only points scored during the first quarter count, with all markets operating independently—resolving solely on the quarter’s final score difference regardless of the full-game result. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional polls, as participants have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to make informed predictions. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can offer a broader perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability assessment of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. The current price indicates how much it costs to take a position on a specific spread, and reflects the collective belief of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 1st quarter spread of the LA Chargers versus SEA Seahawks game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the 1st quarter spread will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution. The resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable data to ensure accuracy and fairness.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chargers or Seahawks—particularly the quarterback or key defensive players—would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment reflected in other analyses, could all contribute to changes in the price of contracts in this market.