TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:46 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets assess whether either team secures a decisive victory margin, focusing specifically on the difference in goals scored between Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon during the same regulation time frame.
These spread markets resolve based on the margin of victory in the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon professional Intl Friendlies soccer match on October 4, 2026, with outcomes determined solely by goals scored during the 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding extra time and penalties. Two sets of outcomes exist: one for Kyrgyzstan winning by more than 2.5 goals and another for Kyrgyzstan winning by more than 1.5 goals; and separately, for Lebanon winning by more than 1.5 goals and Lebanon winning by more than 2.5 goals. If the winning team’s goal margin exceeds the specified threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Each threshold represents an independent market, allowing distinct resolution for varying degrees of victory margin.
Often, prediction market odds can differ from those found at traditional sportsbooks. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Sportsbooks, on the other hand, set their odds based on their own models and risk assessments. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome in this market. It's a useful comparison point for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price will climb. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations for the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon match.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the sporting event organizers. The platform will then verify the result against these sources to determine which side of the market will pay out. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout based on the final market price.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kyrgyzstan or Lebanon team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, weather conditions expected during the match, or even significant shifts in public opinion could also cause the market to move. Unexpected announcements related to the event, such as venue changes or alterations to the game rules, could also introduce volatility to this market.