TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of an international friendly soccer match between Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon. The result is determined by the final score after the regular 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Participants can bet on whether Kyrgyzstan will win, Lebanon will win, or the game will end in a tie.
The event involves determining the winner of an international friendly soccer match between Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon scheduled for October 4, 2026. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootout outcomes. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Kyrgyzstan, a win for Lebanon, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after the specified duration, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Additionally, if the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price as per the defined rules. The markets operate independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced a particular outcome. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but they are derived through different mechanisms and may appeal to different types of bettors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the event's potential results, driven entirely by trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will be paid out according to the final contract prices on Kalshi. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on widely accepted sources of truth for sporting events.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large volume of trades in one direction – can quickly move the market, reflecting a change in collective belief about the likely outcome of the Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon match.