TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:04 AM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a professional soccer match between Kozakken Boys and Barendrecht, focusing on who wins within regular time. The resolution depends solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match is canceled or significantly rescheduled, the market will be priced fairly based on available information.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Kozakken Boys vs Barendrecht professional Tweede Divisie soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if either Kozakken Boys or Barendrecht wins the match within regular time. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' In the event the match is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price based on prevailing conditions and information available at the time. The resolution explicitly excludes outcomes determined by extra time or penalty shootouts.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ willingness to buy or sell. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can influence the price here. It’s common to see this market odds converge with sportsbook odds as the event approaches, but discrepancies can still occur, particularly if new information emerges or public opinion shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by trader activity, is Kozakken Boys wins, though probabilities are dynamic and can change rapidly based on new information and trading activity. The volume traded provides insight into the strength of conviction behind each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Kozakken Boys vs Barendrecht match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or shifts in team form could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, large-volume trades from individual traders or groups could cause noticeable price movements. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to shifts in the market, as traders react to new information and adjust their positions accordingly.