TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 8:58 PM EST
Polymarket
This group covers the Liga Endesa basketball game between Kosner Baskonia and Manresa. Markets exist for the outright winner, the point spread, and the over/under total points scored. Resolution depends on the official final score published on acb.com.
In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for November 1 at 11:00AM ET: If the Kosner Baskonia win, the market will resolve to "Kosner Baskonia". If the Manresa win, the market will resolve to "Manresa". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
The market resolves based on the winner of the men's professional Spain Liga ACB basketball game between Basquet Manresa and Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026, at 11:00 AM EST. If Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz wins, its corresponding market resolves to Yes, and Basquet Manresa’s market resolves to No, and vice versa. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or fails to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. It’s important to compare both to gain a well-rounded view of the likely outcome of the Baskonia vs. Manresa game and identify potential value.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different platforms attract different types of traders, leading to variations in price discovery. Polymarket may have a user base more focused on specific aspects of basketball, while Kalshi might attract a broader range of participants. Furthermore, each platform has its own fee structure and liquidity, which can influence trading behavior. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Spread: Kosner Baskonia (-9.5) at 99, while Kalshi leans toward Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz wins. These differences highlight how market dynamics can play out uniquely on each venue, even for the same underlying event.