TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 12:56 PM EST
Kalshi
A professional basketball game features two teams battling for supremacy, with the winner decided by the final score at the end of play.
The market resolves to Yes for the specified team if they win the match as per the official result. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, leading to a dynamic adjustment of probabilities. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced an outcome, they can take the opposite position, driving the price towards what they perceive as the true probability. This can result in prediction market odds being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices signifying greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, reflecting the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the KK Cibona vs Cedevita Olimpija match, as reported by official league sources. The specific outcome that determines settlement will be the final result of the game – which team wins. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions are settled on Kalshi following the conclusion of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 3, 2026. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either KK Cibona or Cedevita Olimpija would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, such as a recent winning or losing streak, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team dynamics could also move the market. Finally, any major shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to increased trading volume and price adjustments.