TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Kisvarda FC and Ferencvarosi, focusing on determining whether either team wins or the game ends in a tie within regular time. The resolution depends solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match is canceled or significantly rescheduled, the outcome will be determined fairly according to specific guidelines.
The event resolves based on the result of the Kisvarda FC vs Ferencvarosi professional Hungarian NB I soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Kisvarda FC, a win for Ferencvarosi, or a tie. If either team secures a victory within regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the match conclude in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the game is canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price as per the defined rules. The resolution explicitly excludes extra time and penalty shootout results.
Generally, prediction market odds often differ from those of traditional analyst forecasts, as they represent the wisdom of the crowd rather than individual expert opinions. Analysts may rely on statistical models and subjective assessments, while this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many traders willing to put their capital at risk. If analysts widely predict a certain outcome, the odds on Kalshi may move in that direction, but discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional forecasts, particularly when dealing with complex or uncertain events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes at any time. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest collective intelligence. The goal is to create a market where prices accurately represent the true probabilities of each possible result.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Kisvarda vs Ferencvarosi match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final market prices at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome will be determined and verified. The final result will be used to settle all outstanding contracts.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Kisvarda FC or Ferencvarosi would likely impact the odds. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even significant pre-match commentary from influential sports analysts, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a shift in expectations, leading to notable movements in this market.