TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 12:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Kilmarnock and Motherwell, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential, reflecting the competitive balance and performance of both clubs during the match.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Kilmarnock or Motherwell wins the match, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Kilmarnock winning by more than 2.5 goals, Kilmarnock winning by more than 1.5 goals, Motherwell winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Motherwell winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met for the respective team, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event, or that new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It’s useful to compare the two to assess potential value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will fluctuate, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the spread will be higher, the price of contracts representing a higher spread will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Kilmarnock vs Motherwell match, as determined by official match statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome based on the official results of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Significant public sentiment, such as a surge in betting activity on one team at sportsbooks, could also influence the market. Unexpected announcements related to the match, like a key player suspension, would likely cause a rapid price adjustment. Monitoring these signals can help traders anticipate potential market movements.