TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 2:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Kiel vs Hertha professional Bundesliga 2 soccer game will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives “Tie is the result” a 70.0% probability, while “Hertha wins” is at 20.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match as reported by the official result, and you should watch for the final whistle on October 16, 2026, as that is when the 90 minutes plus stoppage time will conclude and the market will be settled.
The market resolves based on the result of the Kiel vs Hertha professional Bundesliga 2 soccer game scheduled for Oct 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Kiel wins, the "Kiel" market resolves to Yes. If Hertha wins, the "Hertha" market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the "Tie" market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at traditional sportsbooks due to the differing incentives and information sources of the participants. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their honest beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when they benefit from a large and diverse group of traders. It's common to see this market reflect a different probability distribution than typical sportsbook offerings, potentially revealing insights not captured by conventional oddsmaking.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the traders regarding the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a more accurate representation of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the potential results of the Kiel vs Hertha match.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Kiel vs Hertha match, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning contract. The resolution process relies on publicly available information to ensure an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi following the completion of the match and verification of the results.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 16, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match commentary from analysts could also play a role. Major upsets in other related matches or broader trends in the league standings might also cause traders to reassess their predictions, leading to price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential shifts in the perceived probabilities.