TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 9:04 AM EST
Kalshi
The market determines the margin of victory for either team in a baseball game, focusing on whether the winning team covers specific run differences. Outcomes hinge on the performance gap between the two competing teams.
This market resolves based on the run differential by which either the LG Twins or Kia Tigers win the game scheduled for October 20, 2026, at 5:30 AM EDT. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: LG Twins win by over 2.5 runs, LG Twins win by over 1.5 runs, Kia Tigers win by over 1.5 runs, and Kia Tigers win by over 2.5 runs. If the actual winning margin meets or exceeds any of the specified thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules note Kalshi's lack of official connection to the governing league, with all trademarks belonging to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, opportunities may arise for arbitrage, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to note that these odds represent different things – one is a prediction, the other a business.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Kia Tigers versus LG Twins game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual run differential between the two teams at the conclusion of the game. The market will determine whether the LG Twins won by more than 2.5 runs, lost by less than 2.5 runs, or won by exactly 2.5 runs. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts settled based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 20, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kia Tigers or the LG Twins would likely have a significant impact. Changes in the starting pitchers for either team, weather forecasts predicting rain or other disruptions, and even late-breaking analysis from baseball experts could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or shifts in public perception of each team’s form, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.