TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential between Kentucky and South Carolina specifically during the second quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team must win that quarter to settle the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second quarter of the Kentucky vs South Carolina college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the designated point margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—outlined in each individual market rule. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official second-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing or outcome beyond the second quarter.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely game outcome or varying levels of information available to each group. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than traditional bookmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their contracts are ultimately in the money. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the game's likely outcome, influencing the price of contracts.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official second quarter spread of the Kentucky vs South Carolina game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics reported by a recognized sports data provider. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders will be able to claim their winnings after the official results are confirmed.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kentucky or South Carolina teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Public perception, reflected in polls or expert analysis, might also contribute to price fluctuations before Oct 3, 2026.