TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether a specific team will win by a designated point margin exclusively in the final quarter of a college football game. The outcomes depend solely on performance during the last 15 minutes of regulation time, ignoring any earlier or overtime scoring.
All markets resolve based exclusively on points scored during the 4th quarter of regulation play in the Kentucky vs Oklahoma college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026, with overtime points excluded from consideration. Each market has a specific point-differential threshold that must be exceeded by either Oklahoma or Kentucky to resolve as 'Yes'. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve at a fair price, taking into account all known information up to that point. No affiliation or endorsement exists between the platform and the NCAA, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts often predict a close game, but this market provides a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on real money at risk.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to offer accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the actual outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by the collective intelligence of the traders participating in this market, creating a dynamic and informative view of potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Kentucky vs Oklahoma game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent process. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kentucky or Oklahoma teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Public perception, as reflected in updated polls or expert analysis, can also shift the market. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to price adjustments before Oct 18, 2026.