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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 9:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Kentucky and Oklahoma. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that determines whether it resolves as 'Yes' or 'No', allowing participants to bet on various possible scoring outcomes within that quarter.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the third quarter of the Kentucky vs Oklahoma college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the stated point margin. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular spread. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a spread is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the event's probability.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final third-quarter spread of the Kentucky vs Oklahoma game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The contract corresponding to the actual spread will pay out $100, while all other contracts will pay out $0. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kentucky or Oklahoma teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal issues, could all contribute to price movements in this market.