TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 8:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of a college football game between Kent State and South Florida. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin during the initial half of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Kent St. vs South Florida college football game scheduled for Oct 17, 2026. For markets where South Florida is the designated winner, resolution occurs if South Florida leads by more than the specified point margin at the end of the first half. Conversely, for markets where Kent St. is the designated winner, resolution occurs if Kent St. leads by more than the specified margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official first-half result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty and preventing unfair outcomes due to unforeseen scheduling disruptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. It's common to see convergence as the event approaches, with both sets of odds becoming more aligned.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Kent State will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts representing that spread will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread for the first half of the Kent State vs South Florida game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Kent State or South Florida would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact playing conditions, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Public perception, reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role, though this market ultimately reflects the collective judgment of traders on Kalshi.