TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks various scoring thresholds for the first half of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each threshold represents a different level of combined points that the teams might achieve before halftime. The outcomes depend solely on the actual points scored during that specific half of play.
These markets evaluate whether the combined score of the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders in the first half of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds ranging from 3.5 to 42.5 points. Resolution is based exclusively on points scored during the first half; any points from the second half or overtime are irrelevant. Each market corresponds to a unique threshold, and the market resolves to 'Yes' only if the actual combined first-half score surpasses that threshold. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. The governing body's official scoring and game records are the sole determinants of resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that prediction market participants have access to information or insights not fully incorporated by sportsbooks. It’s common to see the two converge as the event approaches and more information is released.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time. The current price represents the collective prediction of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score of the first half between the KC Chiefs and the LV Raiders will determine the result. Specifically, the total combined score of both teams at the end of the second quarter will be used to determine whether the market resolves above or below the threshold represented by the contract prices. The resolution will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chiefs or the Raiders would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might lead traders to reassess their predictions. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also play a role in influencing the price of contracts in this market.