TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Kazakhstan vs. Ireland
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Kazakhstan vs. Ireland?

Volume:
$265,737

Ireland

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ireland

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$27,580
N/A
N/A
$21,013
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ireland

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,891
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kazakhstan

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$161,531
N/A
N/A
$124,694
Settled
No
polymarket

Kazakhstan

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,832
N/A
N/A
$44,668
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Kazakhstan vs. Ireland)

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This group forecasts the outcome of a FIFA Women's World Cup Qualifier match between Kazakhstan and Ireland scheduled for October 9, 2026. Markets exist for Kazakhstan winning, Ireland winning, and the game ending in a draw, all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines a win for Kazakhstan as a 'Yes' resolution, while Kalshi includes a 'Tie' as a 'Yes' resolution. Cancellation handling also differs.Hero tip: Consider the probability of a draw when trading on Kalshi, as it contributes to a 'Yes' outcome. Be aware that Polymarket markets will resolve 'No' if the game is canceled.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Kazakhstan wins. Resolves 'No' if the game is canceled. Only considers a Kazakhstan win as a positive outcome. "If Kazakhstan wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Kazakhstan wins OR if the game ends in a tie. "If Kazakhstan wins the Kazakhstan vs Ireland professional FIFA World Cup Qualifiers Women soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 9, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Women's World Cup Qualification game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between Kazakhstan and Ireland.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Kazakhstan vs Ireland women's FIFA World Cup qualifier scheduled for October 9, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for either Kazakhstan or Ireland occurs only if that specific team secures a victory within this timeframe. If the match concludes with an equal score, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will settle at a fair price as determined per platform policy. The markets are independent of official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate the opinions of many independent traders. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially when significant information isn't yet reflected in sportsbook lines. The volume of $265,737 traded on this market demonstrates active participation and a potentially refined assessment of the match’s outcome. These markets also allow participants to take positions based on their own research and insights.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge for several reasons. Different user bases, varying liquidity, and distinct market-making strategies all contribute to price discrepancies. For example, Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders with access to specialized information, while Kalshi could have a broader range of participants. Additionally, the specific rules and fee structures of each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the observed probabilities. The current difference in outlook is reflected in the differing probabilities for the Kazakhstan vs. Ireland match.