TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:55 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets determine whether Kazakhstan or Faroe Islands achieves a victory by a margin exceeding specified goal differences within the regular match duration, again excluding extra time or penalties.
These spread markets resolve based on the goal differential between Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands in their UEFA Nations League match on October 6, 2026, considering only the 90 minutes plus stoppage time period, with extra time and penalties excluded. A 'Yes' outcome for Kazakhstan requires a win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, while a 'Yes' for Faroe Islands requires a win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Kalshi emphasizes it holds no official connection to the governing league, and all trademarks and branding belong to their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess probabilities. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly disagrees with the sportsbook's initial assessment. If a large number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price on this market will adjust accordingly, potentially offering a more favorable value for informed participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices can fluctuate significantly based on trading activity and external factors influencing perceptions of the match’s likely result. The current price represents the cost to take a position on a specific spread.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands match, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the actual results of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player availability for either Kazakhstan or Faroe Islands could significantly shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on weather conditions at the match location, or even shifts in public opinion based on pre-match analysis, could all contribute to price movements. Unexpected results in other matches involving these teams, or even broader trends in international football, could also play a role in how this market behaves leading up to Oct 6, 2026.