TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor
Volume:
$795,970
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a professional Super Lig soccer match between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor scheduled for March 9, 2026. Markets are offered across Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi define cancellation outcomes differently for the draw/tie market. Polymarket explicitly resolves the Draw market to YES if the game is canceled with no make-up; Kalshi provides no cancellation clause, creating ambiguity on how a full cancellation would resolve the Tie market.Hero Tip:
Before the match date, confirm Kalshi's official cancellation policy for the Tie market. If the game is postponed, both platforms keep markets open until completion. If the game is canceled entirely, Polymarket Draw resolves YES automatically, but Kalshi Tie resolution is unclear. This asymmetry creates basis risk for cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers three separate binary markets: Kayserispor Win, Draw, and Trabzonspor Win. Draw market resolves YES if game ends in a draw OR if game is canceled entirely with no make-up. Win markets resolve NO if canceled. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (Draw market only).
- Kalshi: Offers three separate binary markets: Trabzonspor Win, Kayserispor Win, and Tie. No explicit cancellation clause provided in source data. All three markets reference the same match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins the Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor professional Super Lig soccer game... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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