TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the final scoring margin of a college football game between Kansas and Utah, specifically examining how the 4th quarter unfolds. Each market defines a different point differential threshold that determines the outcome, reflecting various levels of dominance by either team in the closing moments of the game.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Kansas vs Utah college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For each market, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the game by more than the stated point margin during that quarter alone. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the 4th quarter, disregarding any points from earlier quarters or overtime periods. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing or circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe the sportsbook's line is inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their beliefs align with the actual outcome. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that spread will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing body of the game. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final result will be publicly available on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas or Utah teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s style of play, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might prompt traders to reassess their predictions, leading to fluctuations in the price of contracts.