TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Kansas will win against TCU by more than 1.5 points in their upcoming college football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 42.0% probability to Kansas winning by over 1.5 points, while the probability of TCU winning by over 1.5 points is 25.0%. The market resolves based on the final score of the Kansas vs TCU college football game, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve to Yes if TCU wins by more than 14.5 points, and the resolution date estimate is November 1, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Kansas vs TCU college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if TCU or Kansas wins by more than the specified margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information, as traders react quickly to news and developments. While sportsbooks may initially have an edge, the collective intelligence of traders in this market often leads to highly accurate predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads in the Kansas vs TCU game. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective expectations of all participants, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Kansas vs TCU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the relevant sports authority. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts, and to 0 otherwise. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those with losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas or TCU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also cause movement. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, could contribute to changes in the Kansas vs TCU spread.