TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 6:16 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Kansas and TCU. Outcomes depend solely on which team leads by a specific margin at the end of that quarter, without considering the full game result.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point difference between Kansas and TCU at the end of the third quarter of the game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, with separate thresholds for both Kansas and TCU victories. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward resolution. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official third-quarter result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading contracts based on their own analysis and information. As a result, you might find that the implied probability of a particular outcome in this market differs from what’s offered by sportsbooks, potentially offering value to informed traders who identify discrepancies between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate beliefs may lose money. This dynamic process helps to aggregate information and arrive at a market-determined probability for the final spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the third quarter of the Kansas vs TCU game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread closer to the actual result will have a higher payout, while those further away will have a lower payout or expire worthless. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and verified against credible public sources.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas or TCU teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also shift the market. Furthermore, as the game approaches, any public statements from coaches or players that reveal strategic insights or confidence levels could move the market. Finally, even large trading volume itself can create momentum and influence prices in this market.