TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Kansas and TCU, specifically analyzing the point differential in the second quarter. It allows participants to speculate on which team will dominate during that particular period of play.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Kansas and TCU exclusively during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with varying margins of victory required for either team to trigger a 'Yes' outcome. For instance, one market requires TCU to win by more than 10.5 points in that quarter, while another demands Kansas secure a victory by over 2.5 points. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second quarter, disregarding any scoring from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original schedule, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, the markets will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. These rules ensure clarity and fairness, focusing solely on the specified timeframe and scoring conditions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs about the likely outcome. Therefore, you may find that the implied probability of a specific spread occurring in this market differs from what is offered at a sportsbook. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Kansas will cover a particular spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust to changing perceptions about the game.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second quarter of the Kansas vs TCU game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will receive nothing. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual game results, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas or TCU teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated statistical models, could lead to increased trading volume and price movement in this market. Game-day developments, such as early scoring drives, will also be impactful.