TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Kansas or TCU within the first quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of play in the Kansas vs TCU college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins by more than the stated point margin within that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the eventual game outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If there’s a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular result. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the actual first quarter spread of the Kansas vs TCU football game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual spread, and 0 for all other contracts. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payouts shortly after the game concludes and the official spread is released.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas or TCU teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse playing conditions, could also impact the spread. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, might also play a role, though the market is ultimately driven by trading activity on Kalshi.