TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Kansas State will win the college football game against Kansas by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 98.0% probability to Kansas St. wins by over 2.5 points, with resolution determined by the final score of the Kansas vs Kansas St. game as reported by official game results. Participants should closely watch the game itself on October 17, 2026, as the final score will determine whether Kansas State exceeds the 2.5 point margin needed to resolve the market to ‘Yes’.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Kansas vs Kansas St. college football game scheduled for Oct 17, 2026. For markets where Kansas St. must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs if Kansas St. wins by more than that margin. For markets where Kansas must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs if Kansas wins by more than that margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, incorporating factors like team statistics and expert opinions. This market, however, allows traders to express their own beliefs, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges. Differences can arise from varying levels of information access and differing interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities over time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These prices are determined solely by supply and demand from traders on Kalshi, and are not influenced by external factors or a central authority setting the odds.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Kansas vs Kansas State game will be used to determine which contracts settle at 100, and which settle at 0. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a trusted source for college football scores. Traders will receive payouts based on the final spread and the contracts they hold when this market closes.
Several factors could influence the Kansas vs Kansas State spread market. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would any changes in coaching strategies or team performance during upcoming games. Unexpected weather forecasts for the game day could also shift the odds. Public sentiment and betting trends, as reflected in trading volume on Kalshi, can also contribute to price movements. Any significant developments related to team morale or off-field issues could also move this market.