TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:42 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the final scoring margin exclusively within the last quarter of a college football rivalry game, ignoring any points scored before that period. Outcomes depend entirely on how the teams perform in the final moments of regulation time.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the fourth quarter of regulation play, with overtime excluded entirely. Each market has a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' outcome. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original kickoff time, it will proceed normally. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve at a fair price rather than settling on the original terms.
Frequently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. This can be due to the diverse information considered by prediction market traders, who may incorporate data beyond standard statistical analysis. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance action, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of participants actively forecasting the outcome. Discrepancies can arise from differing risk assessments and the influence of public perception, leading to potentially advantageous opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the fourth-quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand – if more people believe Kansas State will cover, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Kansas State vs Kansas game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Successful contracts will be those predicting the actual spread within a defined range. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kansas State or Kansas would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift market sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in betting trends and expert analysis, will also play a role in shaping the price of contracts in this market.