TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 2:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Kansas and Kansas State. It centers exclusively on performance during the third quarter, ignoring the rest of the game. Bets are placed on whether one team will outscore the other by a certain margin during that quarter.
The event determines whether Kansas State or Kansas wins by a specified point margin exclusively during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Multiple markets exist with varying point thresholds—ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points—for both teams. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the designated point differential in that quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter; performance in other quarters is irrelevant. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original schedule, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The markets are independent of any broader affiliations with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade contracts based on their own beliefs. If many people believe Kansas will cover the spread, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from initial sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets offer a more accurate forecast, as they aggregate diverse perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome – in this case, Kansas winning by more than the spread. As more traders buy contracts predicting a Kansas win, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the collective beliefs of participants, making it a real-time gauge of expectations for the game’s final margin.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the Kansas vs Kansas State game. If Kansas wins by more than the spread at the end of the third quarter, contracts predicting that outcome will pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in public perception could all move the price. Unexpected coaching decisions or in-game performance during the first half of the game could also lead to substantial price fluctuations. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information entering the market, causing a rapid shift in expectations.