TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 1:48 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Kansas and Kansas State. It evaluates whether one team will outperform the other by a certain margin during a designated quarter, providing insight into expected in-game dynamics.
The event determines whether Kansas State or Kansas wins by a specified point margin during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point-spread threshold, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, for either team. Resolution depends exclusively on points scored in the second quarter; outcomes are based on the official game result if played within 48 hours of the scheduled start. If the game does not start within this window, markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to varying information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of traders who have skin in the game. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market tends to adjust more rapidly than traditional odds. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the betting cycle, but they often converge closer to game time as more data is incorporated into both.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Kansas vs Kansas State spread. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the event occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating they believe Kansas State will cover the spread, the price increases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to reflect the collective intelligence of participants, constantly updating as new information emerges and opinions shift.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the second quarter of the Kansas vs Kansas State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point spread achieved during the second quarter, as officially recorded by sports data providers. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted whether Kansas State would win the 2nd quarter by more than 7.5 points, based on the final score.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kansas or Kansas State would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the playing conditions, could also shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, public perception and betting patterns – even outside of Kalshi – can influence trader behavior and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.