TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 4:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance difference between two college football teams specifically within a single quarter of play. It focuses on how much one team outscores the other during that defined period, offering various thresholds for victory margins.
The event evaluates whether Kansas State or Colorado achieves a specified point differential victory during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point threshold, ranging from narrow margins like over 2.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, applicable to either team. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains active and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within this window, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies it has no official affiliation with the NCAA, and all team trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can offer insights into market perceptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the third-quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust to changing expectations about the game's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final third-quarter point spread of the Kansas State versus Colorado game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their stake. The platform will verify the result and distribute payouts accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself, indicating strong conviction from informed traders, could cause noticeable price movements.