TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 4:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming college football game between Kansas State and Arizona State. It includes scenarios where either team scores first, or neither team scores a touchdown during the entire match, including any overtime periods.
The market determines the outcome based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Kansas St. vs Arizona St. college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. All types of touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams—count towards the resolution. If the first touchdown occurs in overtime, the market for that team resolves as Yes. Should neither team score a touchdown at any point in the game, including overtime, the market titled “No team scores a TD” resolves to Yes. Postponements are handled such that if the game commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi clarifies that it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks and logos belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe Kansas State will score first, the price of that outcome will rise. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, as indicated by trader activity, is No team scores a TD, though this can change rapidly as new information becomes available and trading volume increases. The market reflects the collective assessment of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Kansas State vs Arizona State game, as determined by official game statistics. The platform will verify the result against official sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kansas State or Arizona State would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team's offensive style, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as public sentiment expressed through polls or expert analysis, could all contribute to movements in this market before Oct 24, 2026.