TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on whether specific players or teams will score a certain number of touchdowns in an upcoming professional football game. The outcome depends entirely on the players' or teams' performance during the match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required touchdowns. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. This event includes full game touchdowns, including overtime. Passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer. Team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns, and the player participation exception does not apply to them. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by analysts. Sportsbooks often incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, whereas this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If initial sportsbook odds heavily favor one outcome, you might see the prediction market diverge, especially as more information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. It’s common to observe convergence closer to the event as more participants refine their forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards another outcome, the price of that contract will increase while the original decreases. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official number of touchdowns scored during the Kansas City versus Seattle game, as recorded by official league statistics. The market will determine which outcomes are considered correct based on the official game results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process. Traders will then be paid out based on their positions in the market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. News regarding key player injuries to either team’s offensive stars, such as the quarterback or wide receivers, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also shift expectations regarding scoring. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market.