TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Seattle. Participants can bet on how many rushing yards a designated player will achieve, with payouts increasing progressively as the yardage rises. The structure rewards higher performance with exponentially greater returns.
The event evaluates two separate markets based on the rushing yards accumulated by designated players — Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City and Kenneth Walker III for Seattle — in their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market operates as a scalar prediction, where Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule tied to every 10-yard increment of rushing yards achieved by the respective player. The payout schedule begins at $0.0000 for 0–9 yards and increases non-linearly, capping at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring that the total payout for both sides equals $1.00. A specific formula calculates the exact payout: Payout Formula = floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y is derived from the official rushing yards (s), adjusted to a maximum of 200 yards. Negative rushing yard totals result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. Both markets resolve to Yes once the game is officially completed, with Kalshi clarifying it holds no official affiliation with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on power rankings and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own research or insights. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling on Kalshi and a sportsbook. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither is guaranteed to be more accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential rushing yardage in the Kansas City vs Seattle game. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for both the Kansas City and Seattle teams are verifiable from credible public reporting following the completion of the game. The final market price will reflect the actual rushing yardage achieved, and traders who correctly predicted the outcome will profit based on their positions. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress and any potential factors that could impact the final rushing yard totals as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could influence this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could affect the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies focused on stopping the run could also significantly shift the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions could lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market as traders react to the new information.