TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on whether a specific player will achieve various rushing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each outcome represents a different yardage milestone the player must surpass to settle the market. The contracts include special participation rules that protect investors if the player exits the game early under certain conditions.
All contracts in this event are designated as protected, meaning they incorporate specific participation clauses to determine settlement when a player exits the game early. If the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half—including any overtime period—the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player records the required rushing yards, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in at least one play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Notably, injury, an injury designation, or being ruled out is not required for protection to apply. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and lining up for a play stopped by a penalty before the snap, without participating in a subsequent play, also does not count. A player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. All contracts apply to full-game rushing yards, including overtime, and the protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing or overvaluing a particular outcome, the odds here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public perception shifts leading up to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different rushing yard outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy a contract, the higher its price rises, indicating increased confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all traders.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Kansas City versus Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage statistics, as reported by the NFL, will determine which outcomes win or lose. Traders who correctly predicted the rushing yardage range will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution. It's important to monitor official sources for the definitive results.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the expected game plan or weather conditions. Significant news regarding offensive line matchups or defensive strategies could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any public statements from coaches or players about their approach to the running game might impact trader sentiment and cause prices to fluctuate. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.