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OPEN INTEREST:
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410,482
Markets across
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 25, 10:53 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often specific players attempt to run with the ball during an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Seattle. The outcomes depend on whether designated players reach certain thresholds of rushing attempts. Each market has different requirements for how many times a player must carry the ball for the market to settle as 'Yes'.
All markets resolve based on the number of rushing attempts recorded by specified players during the Kansas City vs Seattle Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. For any player listed, if they are active but never take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap — even if that snap is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual number of rushing attempts they record during the game. Each market has a specific threshold: Patrick Mahomes must record 1+, 4+, or 7+ rushing attempts, while Kenneth Walker III must record 16+, 19+, or 22+ rushing attempts for the respective markets to resolve to 'Yes'. The markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria based on the defined rushing attempt thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on trader sentiment. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on injuries, weather conditions, or strategic game plans. It’s common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, potentially offering a more accurate forecast as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total rushing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which drives price fluctuations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. These price movements are visible in real-time on the dashboard, allowing participants to assess the market's sentiment and make informed trading decisions.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing attempts total from the Kansas City vs Seattle game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will reflect the combined rushing attempts of both teams during the game. Traders who correctly predicted the total rushing attempts will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market. Any news regarding key running backs for either team, such as injuries or changes in playing time, would likely cause significant movement. Weather forecasts also play a role, as inclement weather often leads to more rushing attempts. Coaching decisions and strategic adjustments announced leading up to the game could also shift expectations. Finally, any late-breaking news about team formations or offensive schemes could impact the perceived likelihood of different rushing attempt totals, driving price changes in this market.