TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Kansas City and Seattle. It focuses on how many times each player records a reception during the match. The outcome depends on the actual number of receptions each player achieves, influencing the value of corresponding contracts.
The event comprises two separate markets, each tied to a different player’s performance in the same game. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the designated player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay the remainder, such that the total payout for any contract always sums to $1.00. Payouts are scalar and proportional to the number of receptions, meaning they scale linearly between $0.00 (zero receptions) and $1.00 (20 or more receptions). For example, 8 receptions would yield a Yes payout of $0.40 and a No payout of $0.60, while 11 receptions would result in a Yes payout of $0.55 and a No payout of $0.45. The structure ensures that the combined Yes and No payouts for any position always equal $1.00, reflecting the inverse relationship between the two outcomes. The markets operate independently, each resolving based solely on the reception count of its respective player.
Generally, prediction market odds can differ from those found at sportsbooks due to the differing motivations of participants. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that attract balanced betting action and ensure a profit margin, while participants in this market are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This often leads to prediction markets reflecting a “wisdom of the crowd” effect, potentially offering more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. However, sportsbooks may offer different types of wagers or incorporate factors not explicitly modeled in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official NFL statistics for receptions will be used to determine which players exceeded their respective reception totals. The resolution will be based on the final, official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the game. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on publicly available data.
Several factors could influence this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team offensive strategies, or even weather conditions could all impact the expected reception totals and shift the odds. Significant performance in previous games, or even pre-game reports about a player’s role in the offense, could also move the market. Unexpected changes in quarterback performance or the emergence of a new receiving threat could also be catalysts. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding the dynamics of this market.