TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the receiving performance of two players in a specific NFL game between Kansas City and Seattle. Participants can bet on whether each player will accumulate a certain amount of receiving yards, with payouts scaling based on the exact yardage achieved. The structure allows for nuanced betting on player performance in a head-to-head matchup.
The event consists of two parallel scalar markets focusing on the receiving yards of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III in the Kansas City vs Seattle NFL game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded by the respective player, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards). No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size and constrained between $0.00 and $1.00. For example, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; 200 yards would result in a $0.50 payout for both Yes and No. Zero receiving yards would pay Yes $0.00 and No $1.00. The markets resolve to Yes if the specified yardage conditions are met for each player individually.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, but may be influenced by biases or the need to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own information and beliefs. While there can be discrepancies initially, the odds on Kalshi often converge towards a more accurate probability as more information becomes available and trading volume increases.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage thresholds for players in the Kansas City versus Seattle game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that threshold being reached. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the potential outcomes. The market efficiently incorporates diverse perspectives and expectations, leading to a potentially more informed price discovery process.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Kansas City versus Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts settle positively or negatively. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted whether a specific yardage threshold would be reached. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the settlement of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Kansas City or Seattle teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the prices. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact passing game expectations and therefore the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or player matchups could lead to adjustments in traders’ beliefs and subsequent price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.