TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market evaluates player performance in a specific football game by tying payouts to the number of receiving yards achieved. Contracts reward investors based on how well designated players exceed yardage thresholds, with increasing returns for higher performance levels.
Contracts pay out based on the receiving yards accumulated by specified players during the Kansas City vs Seattle Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts escalate in a tiered structure with each 10-yard increment, calculated using the formula floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000, where y equals min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) and s represents the official receiving yards. The maximum 'Yes' payout is $1.00. 'No' contracts receive $1.00 minus the 'Yes' payout, with both types resolving to 'Yes' post-game. Negative yardage results assign a $0.00 payout to 'Yes' contracts. The structure ensures non-linear reward scaling, heavily favoring higher yardage achievements while maintaining a capped return ceiling.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set lines based on team statistics, expert analysis, and public betting patterns, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. As a result, prediction markets can sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. Discrepancies may arise due to differing risk assessments and the influence of market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential receiving yard totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific yardage range, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the final receiving yards total.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yards totals from the Kansas City vs Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards for both teams will be aggregated to determine the market's outcome. The resolution process relies on official game statistics to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events based on the verified results.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Kansas City or Seattle teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to impact passing offenses, could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, updates on defensive strategies or coaching decisions could affect expectations regarding passing yardage. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or game plans could lead to adjustments in the market price.