TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players from both teams achieve a longest reception exceeding defined yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each player's performance is evaluated independently against their personal yardage requirement for the market to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based on whether the named player records a longest reception exceeding their specified yardage threshold during the game. If a player is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by penalty — the market outcome is determined solely by whether their longest reception meets or exceeds the stated yardage requirement. All markets operate independently, with resolution contingent on individual player performance rather than team results or comparative statistics between players.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may be influenced by factors like public betting patterns or a desire to balance their risk. This market, driven by informed traders on Kalshi, tends to incorporate a broader range of information and can sometimes offer more accurate predictions than those found at sportsbooks. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing methodologies and risk assessments.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winner. The official NFL game statistics will serve as the definitive source for determining the longest reception, and the market will settle based on this data. Any ties will be resolved according to the platform’s standard rules for tied outcomes.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or even shifts in coaching strategies could all impact the perceived likelihood of different players achieving a long reception. Unexpected developments during the game itself, such as a key defensive adjustment or a particularly aggressive play call, could also cause significant price movements. Furthermore, large trades on Kalshi by informed traders could signal new information or a change in sentiment, potentially shifting the market’s direction.