TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Patrick Mahomes will achieve 150 or more passing yards in the Kansas City vs Seattle Pro Football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Mahomes exceeding this yardage total. The market resolves based on official game statistics, specifically if Sam Darnold records 150+ passing yards in the Kansas City vs Seattle Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 25, 2026, as determined by the resolution source. Keep a close eye on the game itself, as the market will resolve the day after the originally scheduled game date of October 26, 2026.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing yard threshold in the Kansas City vs Seattle Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly on the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all yardage thresholds for each named quarterback.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. It’s common to see this market move in response to news, injuries, or shifts in public sentiment, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered by sportsbooks. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi tend to converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final passing yardage totals from the Kansas City versus Seattle game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official statistics released by the NFL will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final results reflected on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game, and any outstanding contracts will be settled accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence expectations for passing yardage. Additionally, late-breaking news about changes in offensive play-calling strategies or defensive schemes could move the market. Overall team performance in preceding games and any significant pre-game analysis from sports analysts could also affect trading activity on Kalshi.