TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends on whether the designated player achieves various passing yard thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
Each market resolves to Yes if the specified quarterback achieves the exact passing yard threshold stated in the primary rule during the entire game, including overtime. All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game started unless the player meets the threshold, in which case it settles based on actual performance. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or attempt to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust, but the speed and magnitude of those adjustments can vary. It’s common to see this market move more efficiently with new information than traditional betting markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. The more traders participate and the higher the volume, the more efficient the price discovery process becomes, leading to a more accurate reflection of the true probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage totals for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL following the completion of the Kansas City versus Seattle game. The market will determine which outcome – representing a specific range of passing yards – aligns with the official data. Any disputes regarding the official statistics will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team – including injuries or changes in playing status – would be a major catalyst. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence passing yardage totals. Unexpected changes in coaching strategy or defensive schemes could also shift expectations. Finally, late-breaking news regarding key wide receivers or offensive linemen could lead to substantial price movements in this market as traders react to the latest information.