TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully throw the ball for touchdowns. The outcome depends on whether each player reaches certain thresholds of scoring passes during the match.
These contracts resolve based on whether specified quarterbacks achieve particular numbers of passing touchdowns in the designated game, including any overtime periods. Each contract is marked as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime, the contract settles at the pre-game fair price unless the player meets or exceeds the required touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual performance. If the player participates in any play after halftime, the contract always settles based on actual statistics, irrespective of first-half involvement. Plays nullified by penalties do not count toward participation or touchdown totals. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection mechanism applies exclusively to full-game contracts with 'at least' or 'above' payout criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling on both venues. It's common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information becomes available, and this market is no exception.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored by each team during the Kansas City versus Seattle game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will serve as the basis for settlement. Traders should monitor official sources as the game progresses to understand how the outcome is unfolding and how it might affect this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running offenses, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player matchups could also move the market. Finally, as game day approaches, any public statements from analysts or players regarding expected passing volume could create volatility in this market.