TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by specified quarterbacks during the Kansas City vs Seattle Professional Football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. For each market, if the named quarterback achieves the stated minimum number of completions (15+, 20+, or 25+ for Sam Darnold; 16+, 21+, or 26+ for Patrick Mahomes), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is listed as active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether those plays are nullified by penalties—the market settles strictly based on the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. These provisions ensure fair resolution even in cases of limited playing time or unusual game circumstances.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess probabilities. It's common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Analyzing the difference between this market and sportsbook lines can reveal insights into where the crowd believes value lies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading contracts at favorable prices, creating a dynamic and informative market.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of official passing completions recorded by the league during the Kansas City Chiefs versus Seattle Seahawks game will determine the outcome. The final result will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Geno Smith would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts – particularly conditions impacting passing offenses – could also shift the market. Unexpected announcements about player availability or changes in offensive strategies could also play a role. Even public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and social media, can influence trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.