TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between two teams during a specific segment of a football game. It focuses solely on the points difference in the second quarter, ignoring the rest of the match. Outcomes depend entirely on which team leads by a certain margin at the end of that quarter.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential between Kansas City and Seattle at the end of the second quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: Seattle must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or Kansas City must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for the respective 'Yes' outcome. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these thresholds. No other quarters, overtime, or post-game events influence the resolution. The markets are independent, with each representing a different point-spread requirement for either team to meet or exceed during that specific quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome or an opportunity for arbitrage. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and are subject to change as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct. The price dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, meaning it changes with each trade executed on the platform. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 2nd quarter spread between Kansas City and Seattle is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official game statistics. Once the official result is available, Kalshi will determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts accordingly. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in public sentiment could all cause the market to move. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or coaching decisions could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations, especially if they represent strong conviction from informed traders. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s outlook.