TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or unit will score the first touchdown for Kansas City in an upcoming football game against Seattle. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified Kansas City player or unit scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap is taken, resolution depends on whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no Kansas City touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific and defensive unit markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each potential outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. Therefore, you may find that the implied probability of a particular outcome in this market differs from sportsbook odds, potentially offering a different perspective on the likelihood of various scenarios. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information, as traders react quickly to developments that could impact the game. This can lead to discrepancies between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Kansas City will score the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, reflecting the implied probability of that outcome. As more people buy contracts predicting a 'yes' outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of contracts available at different price points—indicates the level of agreement among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and reflect the collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team scores the first touchdown in the game between Kansas City and Seattle. The outcome will be based on the official game results and verified against credible public sources. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring that the market accurately reflects the actual event. Traders should monitor official game updates as the game progresses to understand how the outcome is unfolding.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kansas City or Seattle would likely have a substantial impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that could favor one team’s offensive style. Unexpected shifts in expert analysis or public sentiment—perhaps a strong endorsement of a particular team’s offensive strategy—could also influence trading activity. Finally, as the game draws closer, any pre-game reports about team preparations or coaching decisions could lead to price fluctuations in this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on the latest information.