TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 10:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional MLS soccer match between Kansas City and Salt Lake, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Outcomes reflect whether a team wins by a specific goal differential.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Kansas City versus Salt Lake MLS soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026. Resolution occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty kicks excluded. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Kansas City winning by more than 2.5 goals, Kansas City winning by more than 1.5 goals, Salt Lake winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Salt Lake winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate condition under which the respective market would resolve to 'Yes.' The governing rules emphasize that the match must conclude within regular time plus stoppage time for any outcome to apply, and note that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the MLS or its entities.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds due to varying information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows individuals to express their beliefs directly. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and traditional sportsbooks, it could indicate that prediction market traders have access to, or place greater weight on, information not yet fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It's important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Kansas City vs Salt Lake spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' (yes) or 'sell' (no) side of the spread, and the market price adjusts dynamically with each trade. This creates a real-time assessment of the potential spread, driven by the collective intelligence of the traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Kansas City vs Salt Lake game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract price, and proportionally less if there is a difference. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Kansas City or Salt Lake teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected public statements from players or coaches, or shifts in expert analysis, could also contribute to price fluctuations. Any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths will be reflected in the market price.