TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Tre Tucker or Ashton Jeanty will each score at least one touchdown in the Kansas City vs Las Vegas professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 22.0% probability to Tre Tucker scoring 1+ touchdowns, while Ashton Jeanty is at 15.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Ashton Jeanty scores at least one touchdown, as determined by the outcome of the game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. Keep an eye on the final player injury reports released before the game on October 4, 2026, as these could significantly impact individual player performance and market outcomes.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the required number of touchdowns in the designated game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined by whether they meet their touchdown threshold. All markets are independent, and resolution depends solely on in-game performance, with no official affiliation to the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to represent the true probability of different outcomes, though discrepancies can and do occur. It's common to see prediction markets reflect public sentiment more accurately, especially as new information emerges, while sportsbooks may initially be influenced by their own modeling and risk assessment. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the number of touchdowns scored. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, scaled to a maximum of 100. The market’s price movements are a direct result of supply and demand among traders on the exchange.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of touchdowns scored in the Kansas City versus Las Vegas game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, and the market will settle to reflect the actual number of touchdowns scored by both teams combined. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor the game results closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. News regarding key player injuries for either the Kansas City or Las Vegas teams would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor either passing or running offenses, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, might also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in the price of contracts within this market.